Insights

The penguins and the herring.

A long time ago, someone told me what bankruptcy lawyers actually want. It wasn't a verdict. It wasn't a recovery. It was a hearing. Throw them a herring, the line went, and they'll be fine.

It sounded like a joke at the time. It mostly isn't. The longer you spend inside distressed situations, the more you see the room sorting itself into two groups of people. There are the ones who came for the proceeding. And there are the ones who came for the outcome. They sit at the same table. They charge their hours the same way. They are not doing the same job.

I think about this every time I take a seat at one of these tables. The work I'm called in to do depends on knowing the difference. Because if you don't know it, you'll wake up six months later and find that everyone got paid except your client.

The economics of the hearing

A bankruptcy lawyer gets paid by the hour. Every motion, every objection, every status conference, every reply brief is billable time. The fee applications run for hundreds of pages. The court rubber-stamps them because they have to. The estate pays. The estate is the company. The company is the asset that's supposed to be left over for someone to recover against.

I'm not saying any of this is improper. It isn't. It's how the system was built. The professionals get paid first. They get paid before the bondholders, before the trade creditors, before the equity, before anyone who actually had skin in the company before it fell into the hole. The administrative claim sits at the top of the waterfall. By design.

The problem isn't the design. The problem is what the design rewards. It rewards activity. It rewards the next motion. It rewards a process that takes ninety days instead of thirty-five, because thirty-five days of fees is less than ninety days of fees, and the math is the math.

The penguins don't care whether the case ends well. They care whether the case ends. And they'd rather it didn't end soon.

I don't say any of this with contempt. Most of the bankruptcy lawyers I've worked with are good at their job, which is being bankruptcy lawyers. They are exceptional at procedural work. They understand the Bankruptcy Code the way a cardiologist understands a heart. They are not, however, in the room to drive value for your bonds. They are in the room to manage the proceeding. Those are different jobs. They sound similar. They're not.

What changes when someone in the room wants the outcome

The moment someone at the table is being paid to drive a result instead of run a process, everything in the room shifts. Motions get written differently. Settlements get evaluated against a different yardstick. The calendar stops being a billing instrument and starts being a lever.

I'll give you an example without naming the case. We were sitting on a position that the conventional process was going to deliver in roughly four months at a particular price. The professionals were comfortable with that timeline. It was a fine timeline for them. I ran the numbers on what happened if we settled at a higher number in a shorter window, and the answer was: it was worth twenty times what the slow path was worth, and not because the headline price was that much better. The headline price was only a little better. It was the time itself that was worth the money.

That math is invisible if nobody at the table is doing it. It's not that the lawyers don't know how to do it. It's that they have no reason to. Their incentive runs the other way.

So when I take one of these seats, the first thing I do is look around the room and figure out who's a penguin and who isn't. It's not always the lawyers. Sometimes it's a financial advisor whose engagement letter is written by the hour. Sometimes it's a board member who's terrified of being sued and would prefer the proceeding to keep moving slowly so he can say he did everything he was told. The penguins aren't villains. They're just people who are paid to keep the hearings going.

How to tell the difference at the table

A few things, in no particular order. None of them are scientific. All of them have held up across thirty years of these rooms.

Ask about the calendar. If the answer involves a series of milestones the court requires, you're talking to a penguin. If the answer involves what the company needs in order to keep operating through the proceeding, you're talking to someone else.

Ask about the number. Penguins will tell you what the comparable cases settled at. Operators will tell you what the asset is actually worth, and then they'll tell you what the market is willing to pay for it today, and they'll know the gap between the two and have a view on how to close it.

Watch what happens when you propose a short timeline. A penguin will tell you it can't be done. They'll tell you nobody's ever done it in Delaware. They'll cite the procedural complexities. An operator will tell you which three things you'd have to give up to do it in thirty-five days, and then they'll ask whether you're willing to give them up.

What I want my clients to take from this

If you are a board, a fund, a creditor, or an equity holder sitting across the table from a process you didn't ask to be in, the most important question you can ask is whether the people advising you are paid to advance the proceeding or paid to advance the outcome.

It is not enough to hire good lawyers. Good lawyers are necessary. They are not sufficient. The seat at the table that closes the gap between procedure and result is a different seat, and it needs to be filled by someone whose incentives are aligned with yours rather than with the docket.

Throw the penguins a herring. Let them have their hearings. They're good at them, and you need them to be. But make sure there is also someone in the room whose job is to know what the company is actually worth, what the timeline is actually costing you, and what the next move is supposed to be.

That someone, in my experience, is rarely already at the table when I'm called in. They have to be brought in. Which is, in the end, the whole point of writing any of this down.

Mark E. Palmer Founder, Theseus Strategy Group
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